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House Proceeding 03-15-07 on Mar 15th, 2007 :: 0:04:51 to 0:37:34
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Previous speech:

Edward J. Markey

0:03:24 to 0:04:51( Edit History Discussion )
Speech By: Edward J. Markey

Edward J. Markey

0:04:35 to 0:04:51( Edit History Discussion )

Edward J. Markey: shot. mr. bartlett: i want to thank my friend for joining me. this is absolutely a bipartisan issue. i don't know that energy and oil knows the difference between a democrat and a republican.

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:04:51 to 0:05:05( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: i'm pleased that you joined me on the floor. might say just a word about these two philosophies that are keeping us from really focusing on this issue. one is an almost reverence for the marketplace.

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:04:51 to 0:37:34( Edit History Discussion )
Speech By: Roscoe G. Bartlett

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:05:05 to 0:05:19( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: there are many people who believe the marketplace is omneshent, it knows everything, and omnipotent, it is all powerful and will solve everything. i believe the market is very powerful, but

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:05:19 to 0:05:34( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: there are some things god can't do. god can't make a square circle. there are some things the marketplace will not be able to do. i do not think the market signals with be responded to quickly

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:05:34 to 0:05:48( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: enough to meet this challenge. if there were infinite resources this blind faith in the market might have some rell venice. there are not infinite resources. the oil out there is, in fact, finite.

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:05:48 to 0:06:01( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: the other is the near worship of scientists and technology. don't worry, they'll fix it. i mentioned one of our really high officials in government that, you know, peak oil was a reality and that

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:06:01 to 0:06:21( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: it just wasn't going to be there in the future in the amounts we need for our economy. i guess when that happens the price will go up and people will use less and they'll find something

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:06:21 to 0:06:37( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: else. and that solves the problem, don't worry, they'll fix it. i point to two societies, the mayan society, that department get fixed and they are gone, the cliff dwellers in the west,

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:06:37 to 0:06:51( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: their world is gone. i'm sure they were saying when it was deteriorating, they were saying, don't worry. they'll take care of it. then there is easter island. when we found the last survivors they were living

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:06:51 to 0:07:09( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: in caves and eating rats and each other. they had done in that litt part of the planet what we may be doing to the whole planet, they were living beyond their total resources and somebody didn't

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:07:09 to 0:07:32( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: fix it. the next chart looks at a number of the experts and what their predictions are that this peak oil that mr. markey was talking about is going to occur. notice we are now here in twen

0:07:32 to 0:07:55( Edit History Discussion )

and notice there is a large number of them here. campbell, dufayes, matt simmons, several of them i know personally. their predictions are in the very, very near time frame. dufayes believes we now

0:07:55 to 0:08:09( Edit History Discussion )

have passed peak oil. he used to a prognosticator, now he is a historian. he is looking back at peak oil. a few believe it will be between 2010 and 2016 and sira, shell, and no visible peak,

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:08:09 to 0:08:26( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: a few who belief it is sometime in the future. we will have an opportunity to talk about cira and their projections. the large percentage of all of ethose looking at this and studying this

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:08:26 to 0:08:42( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: believe that peak oil is either present or imminent. the next chart is really interesting. if you had one chart to look at, this is the most instructive of all of the charts that we have.

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:08:42 to 0:08:58( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: on this one chart it shows the discovery. that is the large bars here. you see that we, back in the 1940's, we were discovering lots and in the 1950's and 1960's, huge amounts of oil. since

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:08:58 to 0:09:15( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: 1980 it has been down, down, down that is in spite of ever better technologies for discovering oil and ever better incentives. when reagan came to office that was in 1980. we were already 10

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:09:15 to 0:09:28( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: years down the other side of hubbert's peak. we knew that m. king hubbert was right. we reached the peak. i like ronald reagan. i can like a person without liking what he can do. i'm convinced

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:09:28 to 0:09:41( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: his solution to this oil problem was totally the wrong solution. his belief was that if you gave them a profit incentive they would go out there and find it. so they gave them a profit incentive

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:09:41 to 0:09:57( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: and boy did they drill. i don't have it with me. i have a chart that shows how much oil was found. drilling didn't help. you can't find what's not there and you can't pump what you haven't

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:09:57 to 0:10:13( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: found. in spite of ever better techniques like 3-d seismic and computer modeling, we know what the whole globe looks like geologically except maybe we would like to know more about saudi arabia and

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:10:13 to 0:10:32( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: the caspian. we know the geology and know that gas and oil can occur in unique geological formations. now, the dark line here represents the use of oil. you see, for a long while, we were finding

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:10:32 to 0:10:47( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: enormously more oil than we were using. from about 1980 on, we were finding less and less and using more and more. by the way, notice this blip in the 1970's. this is the result of the embargo.

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:10:47 to 0:11:00( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: had this kept going up where would it be? there was a stunning statistic up through the carter years, through this time. every decade we used as much oil as had been used in all of previous

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:11:00 to 0:11:13( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: history. wow. what that says is that when you used half of all the oil in the world there would be one decade left at current use rates. obviously, that couldn't happen. you could use it

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:11:13 to 0:11:25( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: and fall off the cliff at the end because the last remaining oil is harder and harder to get. 1980 on we have been eating into our reserves. we have to take some of this surplus and fill

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:11:25 to 0:11:40( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: in this area here. what will the future look like? this chart presumes it will peak in 2010. you can make the future within limits look differently depending on how aggressive you want

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:11:40 to 0:11:52( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: to be in using enhanced oil recovery. if you want to live everywhere in the world, if you drill 10 wells rather than one in the oil patch, you get the oil out quicker. you are not going to get

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:11:52 to 0:12:04( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: any more oil, but you will get it out more quickly. so there may be some argument about what the future looks like. there can be no argument you can't pump what you haven't found. if

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:12:04 to 0:12:17( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: you put a smooth curve over this discovery curve, the area under that curve represents the total amount of the discoveries. that is the total amount representing these individual bars. if you

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:12:17 to 0:12:31( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: look at the area under the use curve, that will be the amount of oil that we have used. now, obviously, another the end of the day, those two areas are going to be the same. so unless you

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:12:31 to 0:12:44( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: think that we're going to reverse this discovery curve and find a lot more oil and some people do think that, by the way. we'll talk about that in a moment. unless you think we are going find

0:12:44 to 0:12:56( Edit History Discussion )

a lot more oil, the future cannot look very much different than this because you can't pump what you haven't found and the area under this discovery curve cannot be different than the area

0:12:56 to 0:13:20( Edit History Discussion )

under the use curve. there are many people who are projecting uses that would just indicate that we're going to have to find enormously more oil in the future. one of those projections is

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:13:20 to 0:13:37( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: in this the next chart. . this is from our energy information agency. and this is projections of discoveries. now this is -- and they didn't draw a smooth curve. they took in some of the

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:13:37 to 0:13:52( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: humps theer. this -- humps here. this is the projections of discoveries. back in the year 2000 they were projecting what we would find in the future. now they used some very interesting

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:13:52 to 0:14:15( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: assumptions here. the usgs has done a series of simulations. they have some computer modeling. and they have done a series of computer modeling, thousands of these, if this is true, if that

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:14:15 to 0:14:32( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: is true, then what will the likely amount of yet-discovered oil will be, and they have charted these things. and they have the frequency on the ordinant. and on the abcisis they have the year.

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:14:32 to 0:14:49( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: they're running that model. as they change the assumptions they will change the amount of oil they think they'll find. so they've begun to the midpoint of that and they said that was -- it is

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:14:49 to 0:15:06( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: called p. they are talking about probabilities, and that's bizarre because these are not probabilities. this is the fraction of oil that you will find more or find less than this. so what is the

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:15:06 to 0:15:18( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: p-95. that's 95% probability, they say. and then they have the p-50. that's really f-50 in the data they took this from. and then they have the five. and what they say is 50 is halfway between

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:15:18 to 0:15:29( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: five and 95 and that's the mean and that's probable. so their projection was when they made this chart is that this downward slope is going to go up. of course if they really are probabilities

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:15:29 to 0:15:39( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: and they didn't start -- it started these fractional things but it ended up being projected here as probabilities, if they really are probabilities, there should be another green line down here

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:15:39 to 0:15:53( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: and another blue line down here. it's like that little funnel shape thing that you see from the hurricane. tomorrow you're pretty certain where it's going to be. the day after tomorrow you're

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:15:53 to 0:16:06( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: less certain so it's going to be a big funnel as you go out. so that's what these various probabilities are. now not surprisingly, the actual data points have followed the 95% probability. if you

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:16:06 to 0:16:32( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: say those are probabilities, obviously these 95% probable it's a whole lot more probable than 50% probable. but for what it's worth, the actual data points for a decade or so have been following

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:16:32 to 0:16:45( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: the 95% probability. the next chart, this is from the hirsch report. i will note what the hirsch report is. there are two major studies that have been financed by our government. one was financed by

0:16:45 to 0:16:59( Edit History Discussion )

the department of energy. and that was saic report. and dr. hirsch, which is why it's called the hirsch report, and dr. hirsch was the leading investigator on that. and this came out a year and

0:16:59 to 0:17:11( Edit History Discussion )

a half ago, roughly. i think we have quotes from it later. they looked at this situation peaking of world oil productions: impacts, mitigation and risk manage! it's going to peak? what should we

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:17:11 to 0:17:33( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: do about it? what are we going to do about it? that was in the report. well, this was one of the charts from the report. and this is taken from -- these are usgs estimates of ultimate recovery.

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:17:33 to 0:17:46( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: and this is the f that i was talking about. although they somehow changed it to p. but this 95% low, high 5%. just a word about what these numbers are. these are 1,000 giga barrels. now we use gigabarrel

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:17:46 to 0:18:07( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: because a billion in england, as i understand is a million million. a billion is 1,000 million. if you are talking about billions it may confuse some people. but everybody knows what a giga

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:18:07 to 0:18:22( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: is. and a giga is our billion. we are talking about gigabarrels of oil. so this is 2,248 gigabarrels. that, by the way, is roughly the amount of oil that most of the world's experts believe we

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:18:22 to 0:18:42( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: have found. and we used about half of that. we used about 1,000 gigabarrels of oil. so there are about 1,000 that we have yet to use. but what this prognostication indicates is that we are

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:18:42 to 0:18:57( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: going to find as much more oil, another roughry 1,000 gigabarrels -- roughly 1,000 gigabarrels. now that's conceivable. i think it's about as likely as winning the lottery. i don't think there's

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:18:57 to 0:19:12( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: that much probability of that happening. but even if that was true, and that's the stunning thing that this chart shows, even if that was true, that only takes the peak out to 2016. that's

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:19:12 to 0:19:29( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: just around the corner. that's nine years away. even if that is true. this is the power of the exponential function. and one of the most interesting lectures that i ever heard was given

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:19:29 to 0:19:40( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: by dr. albert bartlett, amayor tuss college university, no relative of mine. i wish he was. he gives the exponential function. one is worth spending just a moment on. the story is told that the

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:19:40 to 0:19:54( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: chest was developed in an ancient kingdom and the king was so pleased at the development of the invention of chess that he asked the inventor to come in and he promised him any reasonable

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:19:54 to 0:20:12( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: thing. and the inventor of the chess game said, oh, king, i'm a very simple person. i have simple needs. if you just take my chess board and put a grain of wheat on the first square and two

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:20:12 to 0:20:24( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: grains of wheat on the second square and four grains and keep doubling until you fill off of the 64 squares of my chess board, that will be reward enough. and the king said to himself, simple

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:20:24 to 0:20:36( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: fellow. he could have asked for something meaningful and all he's asked for is a few grains of wheat on a chess board. of course the king could not deliver because it's my understanding that

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:20:36 to 0:20:50( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: it would take the world's harvest today of a decade to fill the chess board. that's the power of exponential growth. albert einstein was asked about what the next great power in the universe would

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:20:50 to 0:21:04( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: be after the discovery of nuclear energy. and he said the most powerful force in the universe was the power of compound interest. well, dr. albert bartlett's fascinating one-hour lecture -- and

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:21:04 to 0:21:18( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: just do a google search for dr. bartlett, albert bartlett in energy and you can pull it up. he has some very interesting illustrations in there. he said the biggest failure of our industrialized society

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:21:18 to 0:21:37( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: is to understand the exponential growth. but even if we were to find as much more oil of all the oil that now exists, it would push the peak out to 2016. if you used enhanced oil recovery

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:21:37 to 0:21:55( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: and pump a lot of co-2 down there and a lot of steam and so forth, maybe you can push it out to 2037. look what happens after that. he fall off a cliff is what they say. the next chart is an interesting

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:21:55 to 0:22:09( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: chart from cera in an article entitled "undulating plateau versus peak oil." there will not be any peak. and i looked at this. by golly, it looks like a peak. it goes up and it comes down.

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:22:09 to 0:22:28( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: now they have several different assumptions in here and it's easy to sort out. this is roughry that two trillion, the current known amount of oil. and if that's all the oil there is, they

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:22:28 to 0:22:40( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: agree that the peak is pretty imminent. but they believe that we're going to find about as much more conventional oil as still exists in reserves. if that's true then the peak only moves out this

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:22:40 to 0:22:58( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: far. and then they think we're going to get a lot of oil from the unconventional oil sources, like the canadian tar sands and our western oil shells and the really heavy oil from venezuela.

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:22:58 to 0:23:11( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: and if we get that, then we're going to go up that high a plateau. but it's still a plateau. and you know, i have 10 kids, 15 grandkids and two great grandkids. wouldn't it be nice if we left a little

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:23:11 to 0:23:25( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: energy for them? we're bequeathing them the largest intergenerational debt transfer in the history of the world. i'd like to leave them a little energy, thank you, which is why i don't vote to

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:23:25 to 0:23:38( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: drill in anwr and why i don't vote to drill off-shore. i think there is a real moral element to this discussion. if we are going to bequeath them this horrendous debt, then i think it's doubly

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:23:38 to 0:23:52( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: immoral of giving them a world in which we raped all the oil. someone suggested in the future, and when they look back at what we've done and say, how could the monsters have done that? i hope

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:23:52 to 0:24:16( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: they don't say that about this generation because i hope that we will do -- that we will do better. and i think this confirms that there will be a peak oil. the next chart here is a statement

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:24:16 to 0:24:28( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: from one of the experts in this field. dr. laherrere says the usgs estimate implies a five-fold increase in discovery rate and reserve addition for which no evidence is presented. such an improvement

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:24:28 to 0:24:42( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: in performance is in fact utterly implausible, he says, given the great technological achievements of the industry over the past 20 years, the worldwide search and the deliberate effort to find

0:24:42 to 0:24:57( Edit History Discussion )

the largest remaining prospects. and we found a pretty big one recently out in the gulf of mexico under, what, 7,000 feet of water. roughly 30,000 feet of rock. if you notice, they're not

0:24:57 to 0:25:09( Edit History Discussion )

developing that yet, i'm told. and not everything i'm told is true because it's sometimes hard to get the correct facts. they said they'll develop it when oil is $211 a barrel because that

0:25:09 to 0:25:27( Edit History Discussion )

is what it will cost to get it out of there. i'm not sure if that's true or not. the next chart -- i mentioned the oil chart that we showed before as being the single chart that i would use if

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:25:27 to 0:25:43( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: i had only one. if i was awarded two charts to use, i would use the upper part of this. this is a really revealing chart. this goes back to about 400 years of, i guess, 5,000 years of

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:25:43 to 0:26:02( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: recorded history. hyman rickover said it is 8,000 years of recorded history. i might diagrees for a moment -- i hope to come to talk about a really interesting speech that hyman rickover, the father

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:26:02 to 0:26:18( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: of our nuclear submarine, gave to a group of physicians in st. paul, minnesota 50 years ago, the 15th of this may. and he notes that we have 8,000 years of recorded history. and he said at that

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:26:18 to 0:26:38( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: time 50 years ago we are about 100 years into the age of oil. this now introduces us to that age of oil. it was introduced by the industrial revolution, which started with wood. the hills of

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:26:38 to 0:26:57( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: new england, the mountains taking charcoal to new england to make iron. up in fredrick -- frederick county, which i represent up there, they denewted the hills up in game brell where camp --

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:26:57 to 0:27:12( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: gambrel where camp david is, it's an historical site. and the industrial revolution began with wood. on the ordinant here is the quadrillion b.t.u.'s. this is the measure. then we found coal.

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:27:12 to 0:27:23( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: boy. then the industrial revolution took off. but it really took off when we found gas and oil. and notice how that is standing up. and notice what happened at the arab oil embargo here in the

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:27:23 to 0:27:35( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: 1970's. where would we be if that hadn't happened? and that was really a wake-up call. as a result of that we today have enormously more efficient appliances than we had them. your air-conditioners

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:27:35 to 0:27:50( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: is probably three times as efficient as it was then. and your refrigerators, the same thing. too bad our cars didn't follow that path, isn't it? well, an interesting thing is that the world's

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:27:50 to 0:28:05( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: population just about followed this curve. for awful these 8,000 years of recorded history, we have somewhere between half a billion and a billion people globally, worldwide. . now with the industrial

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:28:05 to 0:28:20( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: revolution the population has exploded. we now have almost seven billion people in the world. there is in hyman rickover's speech, a fascinating discussion of the contribution of energy to the

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:28:20 to 0:28:33( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: development of civilization. i hope to come to the floor on may 15. we'll spend the whole hour talking about his speech. it was so prophetic. as a matter of fact, he predicted what we

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:28:33 to 0:29:02( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: have just observed, if we start making too much energy from a food substance, the price of food will go up. we have made rather trifling amounts of ethanol from corn and we are doubling the

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:29:02 to 0:29:19( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: price of corn. we are hurting the poor people who use tortillas and the dairymen are losing money month by month. well, this is a striking symbolism here. in another 100, 150 years, we

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:29:19 to 0:29:33( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: will be down the other side of the age of oil. this is going to fall off. is there any reason the world shouldn't follow the microcomple of the united states? m. king hubbert predicted

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:29:33 to 0:29:47( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: we would peak right on schedule. if he was right about the united states, why shouldn't he be right about the world. why shouldn't we have been doing something about that. for the last 27 years,

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:29:47 to 0:30:06( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: since 1980, we have known very well that m. king hubbert was right about the united states. if he was right about the united states, maybe, just maybe, he would be right about the world.

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:30:06 to 0:30:25( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: no mat what what we do, drill the equivalent of a half million wells, millions worldwide, it still goes downhill no matter what we have done. very interesting. in 8,000 years in recorded

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:30:25 to 0:30:42( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: history the age of oil will be but a blip. 300 years. what will our world then look like? well, our next chart introduces us to that. sooner or later, whether we like it or not, we will

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:30:42 to 0:30:55( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: transition from fossil fuels because they will one day be gone. we will transition from fossil fuels to renewables. and this chart looks at the options that we have. we have some finite sources

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:30:55 to 0:31:13( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: and we need to come back for another hour and talk in detail about some of these finite sources that we have here and what their potential is and let the listener judge as to what contribution

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:31:13 to 0:31:32( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: they think will be made from this. one of the challenges we have is the fantastic density of energy in our fossil fuels. one barrel of oil has in it the energy equivalent of 12 people working all

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:31:32 to 0:31:51( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: year long. hyman rickover gives fascinating examples of this in his speech to physicians nearly 50 years ago. he said each worker in the factory, that each worker in the factory had at his disposal

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:31:51 to 0:32:05( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: the power equivalent of 244 men turning the wheels and so forth for him. that every family had the mechanical system stoves and vacuum cleaners and so forth that represented the work of 33

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:32:05 to 0:32:19( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: full-time faithful household servants. 100,000 men pushed your car down the road and 700,000 men, the equivalent energy of 700,000 men pushed the jet plane through the sky. two little examples

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:32:19 to 0:32:38( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: that will help you get your mind around this. just think how one -- how far one gallon of gasoline or diesel, by the way, still cheaper than water in the grocery store. how far that one gallon

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:32:38 to 0:32:51( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: takes your car. i drive a prius. it takes my prius about 50 miles. how long would it take me to pull my prius 50 miles. you work really hard all day. i get more work out of an electric motor

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:32:51 to 0:33:05( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: than less than 25 cents worth of electricity. about 25 cents worth of electricity. that may be humbling to represent that you are worth less than 25 cents a day in terms of fossil fuel. that

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:33:05 to 0:33:24( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: is the reality. that is why we have such an incredibly high standard of living, why we live so well. because we have this incredible energy source at our disposal. well, we now -- the challenge is

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:33:24 to 0:33:40( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: to transition to ultimately the renewable forms of energy that will provide the same quality of life. we have some finite resources that we can go through. the tar sands, the oil shales, the coal

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:33:40 to 0:33:54( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: nucleus figgs, nuclear fusion. we don't have time to talk about these in detail. we will come back and and talk about it in detail. all the renewables, these will all be gone except nuclear. if

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:33:54 to 0:34:11( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: we ever get fusion we are home free. if we go to breeder reactors we buy some problems, but have relatively secure energy if you can handle the waste from that. all of these will be gone. there

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:34:11 to 0:34:28( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: is only so much tar sands, oil shale and coal. they come with pretty polluting processes. ultimately we will be down here getting our energy from all of these resources. solar, wind, geothermal, ocean

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:34:28 to 0:34:44( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: energy, agricultural resources, soy diesel,bio -- biodiesel, ethanol, methanol, biomass. the president the other evening was saying there is going to be limited amounts of energy we

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:34:44 to 0:35:00( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: can get from ethanol because already we doubled the price of corn. now we need to turn to biomass. cellulosic ethanol, liberating the flew cose so tightly bound in the -- the glucose so tightly

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:35:00 to 0:35:20( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: bound in the starch molecule that enzymes in our body can't liberate it. there are mike robes that live in -- microbes that live in cockroaches and the stomach of cows and sheep and goat and the

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:35:20 to 0:35:37( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: appendix of goats and guinea pigs that does that for them. so the celluloic ethanol is liberating the glucose. a word of caution, the huge stream of waste we have is as a result of profligate

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:35:37 to 0:35:53( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: use of fossil fuels. in an energy deficient world there would be nowhere nears much waste. it will not be the ultimate solution to our problem. hydrogen. i just want to make sure that hydrogen

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:35:53 to 0:36:04( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: is not an energy source. we talk about it because when you burn it you get water that is pretty darn clean. it is a great applicant candidate for fuel cells if we ever get fuel cells. twice the

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:36:04 to 0:36:19( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: efficiency. think of hydrogen as a battery, something to carry energy from one source to the other. we have only a few moments replaining. i would like to put a few charts up, that will introduce

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:36:19 to 0:36:40( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: us to a longer discussion that we'll have next time. we're very much like the young couple whose grandparents have died and they have established a lot of lifestyle where 80% of the

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:36:40 to 0:36:58( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: money they spend comes from their inheritance and 15% from what they are earning. with are getting 85% from fossil fuel and 15% from renewable. we have to make more or use less. a bit more

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:36:58 to 0:37:23( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: than half of all of this other than fossil fuel energy is nuclear power. 8% total use, 20% of electricity. it probably could and should be more than that conventional hydroelectric is peaked

Roscoe G. Bartlett

0:37:23 to 0:37:34( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: out. we'll come back and we'll spend a full hour talking about the potentials of these. they are exciting challenges. thank you, mr. speaker, i yield back. the speaker pro tempore: under the

Tim Ryan

0:37:34 to 0:37:45( Edit History Discussion )

Tim Ryan: speaker's announced policy of january 18, 2007, the gentleman from ohio mr. ryan, is recognized for 60 minutes as the designee of the majority leader. mr. ryan: thank you, madam speaker.

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